Opinion: 15 years after democracy, Tonga’s electoral system is rotting from within

By Melino Maka

NUKU’ALOFA – Fifteen years ago, Tonga celebrated. The 2010 constitutional reforms promised a new dawn: an elected majority, accountable government, and the slow retreat of hereditary power. For a brief moment, it felt like the Kingdom was finally walking the path of modern democracy.

Today, that path has become a swamp.

Last week, the Supreme Court found Tourism Minister Semisi Sika guilty of electoral breaches. He is the second sitting minister in this cabinet to be convicted – joining the Finance Minister, who was found guilty of bribery for distributing fish to voters. Two more ministers, including the Deputy Prime Minister, are waiting for their day in court. Their cases will drag on for months. The Court of Appeal will not sit until July 2026.

And what is the consequence of these convictions? Almost nothing. Both convicted ministers have been granted stays of execution. They remain in Parliament. They remain in Cabinet. They vote on laws. They spend public money. The very people a judge has declared to have broken electoral law continue to govern the nation.

Let that sink in.

A Prime Minister built on desperate choices

The Prime Minister should never have appointed Semisi Sika to his cabinet. It has been known for months that Sika did not have a strong case. His defence – that a $10,000 sponsorship was a “corporate social responsibility” payment, not a campaign expense – was always laughably thin. The payment was made weeks before polling day. The company was one in which Sika is a shareholder. The court saw right through it.

But the Prime Minister was desperate. He used anything and anyone to get into power. He knew Sika was legally exposed. He knew the Finance Minister’s fish distribution was suspect. He appointed them anyway because he needed their votes to form government. That is not leadership. That is a survival strategy. And now the entire executive branch is stained with judicial findings of illegality.

History repeating: 2021 vs 2025 – the system has learned nothing

Let us be clear: this is not the first time Tonga has been here.

After the 2021 general election, complaints, court cases, and appeals did not conclude until August 2022 – a full nine months during which the government and parliament were effectively paralysed. Three senior cabinet ministers were found guilty of bribery and removed from both cabinet and parliament:

Poasi Tei – Deputy Prime Minister
Tatafu Moeaki – Minister of Trade and Economic Development
Sangstar Saulala – Minister of Internal Affairs

A fourth MP, Pohiva Tu’i’onetoa (Tongatapu representative), also lost his seat. In total, four MPs were unseated. Bribery charges against MPs Tevita Puloka and Dr Uhilamoelangi Fasi were dismissed, but the damage was done. Nine months of uncertainty. Nine months of convicted MPs clinging to office while appeals dragged on.

Now look at the 2025 election. The same pattern. The same delays. The same mistakes.

Here is where things stand with winning candidates from November 2025:

Constituency	Candidate	Status
Tongatapu 2	Semisi Kioa Lafu Sika	Guilty
Tongatapu 4	Mateni Tapueluelu	Complaint withdrawn
Tongatapu 9	Sevenitini Tamoua	Not guilty but appealing
Tongatapu 10	Kapelieli Lanumata	Complaint withdrawn
Eua 11	Taniela Fusimalohi	Case pending
Haʻapai 12	Saimone Vuki	Pending
Haʻapai 13	Esafe Latu	Pending
Vavaʻu 16	Dr. Viliami Uasike Latu	Pending
Niua 17	Lataifaingata’a Tangimana	Guilty of bribery; now appealing

That is at least three convictions or appeals already – Sika, the Finance Minister (Tongatapu bribery case), and the Niua 17 representative – with half a dozen cases still pending. Six months after the election, many hearings have not even begun.

Two main issues demand urgent attention

If voters do their part – and they have, turning out in good faith – the system has failed them. The 2021 debacle should have been a wake-up call. Instead, the system has not learned from previous mistakes. Some candidates have repeated the same offences: bribery, undeclared spending, corporate loopholes. And the consequence? The new democratic system is bleeding credibility.

Two issues stand out:

The appeals process is broken. Nine months in 2021. Six months and counting in 2025. Stays of execution allow convicted MPs to remain in power for nearly a year. That is not justice. That is a licence to cheat.
No meaningful deterrent exists. The same kinds of offences – bribery, campaign finance violations – recurred in 2025 because the penalties are weak and enforcement is slow. When a minister knows he can stay in office for months after conviction, what is the disincentive?

What happens when the by-elections come?

If the Court of Appeal upholds the convictions of Sika, the Finance Minister, and the Niua 17 representative – and if pending cases against the Deputy Prime Minister and others result in further convictions – Tonga could face four or more simultaneous by-elections.

The newly elected MPs owe nothing to the Prime Minister. If they align with the opposition, the government’s majority could vanish overnight. A vote of no confidence could succeed. The Prime Minister could be thrown out of office.

Even worse: constitutional amendments require a two-thirds majority (17 out of 26 votes). The government may currently be close to that threshold. But if several seats flip, the Prime Minister loses any ability to pass or block constitutional change. And given the clear signs that the Crown is reasserting royal authority – the Prime Minister is a noble, the Speaker is a noble, the Crown Prince oversees foreign affairs and the military – the risk of a democratic backslide is very real.

What must be done – starting with electoral education

It is now warranted to tighten the electoral law. But laws alone are not enough. There is a profound need for major electoral education – not just for voters, but for candidates and government officials too.

Voters need to understand their rights and how to report bribery. Candidates need to understand that corporate sponsorships, fish distributions, and fireworks are not “campaign expenses” by another name. And government officials – including the Electoral Commission, the Attorney General’s office, and the judiciary – need urgent training to process complaints within weeks, not months.

The current ignorance is not innocent. After 2021, every candidate knew the rules. Yet in 2025, we saw the same offences. That is either wilful blindness or contempt for the law. Either way, it must be addressed through mandatory pre-candidate training, public awareness campaigns, and real-time disclosure requirements.

The democracy we lost

Tonga’s voters have noticed. Turnout has fallen at every single election since 2010 – from over 90% to less than 50% in 2025. That is not apathy. That is a verdict. People see that electoral fraud goes unpunished. They see convicted ministers in cabinet. They see six months of inaction. And they ask: why should I bother?

The promise of 2010 was that the people’s voice would finally matter. Fifteen years later, that voice has been drowned out by desperation, delay, and the silent erosion of every democratic safeguard. The system has not learned from 2021. The same mistakes have been repeated. Credibility is collapsing.

What happens next, no one knows. But unless we tighten the electoral law, impose strict time limits on appeals, and launch a national electoral education programme for voters, candidates, and officials, the 2029 election will be worse. And the democracy we thought we were building will be nothing more than a memory.

The voters have done their part. It is time for the system to do its.