The Polite Fiction of Tonga’s Recovery: An IMF Report Card We Can’t Afford to Ignore
As Tongans prepare to head to the polls, a crucial document has landed with a soft thud on the desks of our leaders. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest assessment of our economy concludes the 2025 “Article IV Consultation” with the usual diplomatic fanfare. It speaks of growth, resilience, and a “favourable outlook.” But read between the lines, and this report is not a commendation; it is a stark warning wrapped in polite language. It reveals an economy running on borrowed time and donor dollars, and it exposes a political landscape devoid of the bold ideas needed to secure our future.
The IMF notes that our economy grew by 2.7 percent. This is the headline our leaders would love us to focus on. But this growth is an illusion, built almost entirely on the temporary surge of post-eruption reconstruction and the steadfast flow of remittances from our families overseas. It is a sugar rush, not a sign of renewed health. The IMF itself projects this growth will slow as the reconstruction projects wind down, revealing what they politely call “long-standing structural constraints.” We know these constraints by their real names: a desperate lack of jobs, a brain drain as our best and brightest seek opportunities abroad, and an economy that remains dangerously narrow and vulnerable to the next climate shock.
The most damning part of the report is not in its criticism, but in its prescriptions. The IMF advises a shift to a “contractionary fiscal stance.” In plain language, this means the government needs to start tightening its belt because the party is over. For years, our national budget has been propped up by the generosity of donor partners. But what happens when that support inevitably wanes? The IMF’s answer is a bitter pill our politicians have been unwilling to administer: we must phase out inefficient tax exemptions, improve tax collection, and spend public money with far greater efficiency. These are not new ideas, but they are ideas that require political courage—courage we have yet to see.
This brings us to the heart of the problem, visible not in the IMF report, but in our current political moment. As we look to elect a new government, where are the candidates with a serious, credible plan to wean our economy off its aid dependency? Where is the visionary leadership that will tell us the truth: that we cannot forever rely on remittances and grants, and that building a self-reliant economy requires difficult, immediate reforms?
The campaign trail is filled with promises, but silent on the specifics of how we will tackle the core inflation of nearly 10 percent that is squeezing family budgets. It is silent on a concrete strategy to create sustainable industries that provide jobs beyond the civil service. It is silent on a genuine, ruthless war on the inefficiency and graft that siphons precious public funds into private pockets.
The IMF report should be a wake-up call for every voter. It is a technical blueprint of our challenges, confirming what we already feel in the cost of our groceries and the departure of our youth. The polite language of international diplomacy should not blind us to the urgent message it contains.
We are at a crossroads. We can continue on the current path, enjoying the temporary highs of donor-funded projects until the next crisis hits and finds our treasury empty. Or, we can demand a new path. We must use our votes to ask the hard questions: How will you create real jobs? How will you ensure everyone pays their fair share of taxes? How will you make our government accountable and efficient?
The IMF has done its job. It has provided the diagnosis. The question now is whether we, the people of Tonga, will elect a government with the courage to finally administer the cure.
By Melino Maka
