Trump Chaos Leaves Australia and New Zealand Holding the Pacific Line Against China
As U.S. retreats, its Five Eyes partners scramble to defend influence in a region critical to global security.
Deep in the steamy jungles of Papua New Guinea, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his PNG counterpart James Marape hiked the historic Kokoda Trail, retracing the steps of World War II soldiers and reinforcing Australia’s deep ties with the Pacific. The symbolic two-day trek wasn’t just about honoring the past — it was a modern diplomatic mission, forged in brotherhood, to anchor Australian leadership in a region of rising geopolitical tension.
But that leadership no longer stands alone.
Across the Tasman, New Zealand — Australia’s traditional partner in the Pacific and fellow member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance — has also been quietly but decisively reinforcing its presence. Together, Wellington and Canberra now find themselves on the frontlines of a strategic contest with China, filling the vacuum left by an increasingly erratic U.S. presence under former President Donald Trump — a vacuum that may widen if Trump returns to the White House.
With Washington slashing foreign aid, retreating from climate commitments, and turning inward, Beijing has seized the opportunity to strengthen its economic and diplomatic footprint across the Pacific Islands. At stake are not only vital shipping lanes and undersea internet cables, but also the region’s vast exclusive economic zones and the allegiance of 14 independent nations that hold sway in global forums like the United Nations.
Strategic Stakes
A glance at the Pacific map reveals seemingly scattered dots — tiny nations with modest populations. Yet their location is of immense strategic value. From Kiribati, as close to Hawaii as Los Angeles is to New York, to Papua New Guinea, just 150 kilometers from Australia’s north, these islands represent key forward bases, deep-sea ports, and critical undersea infrastructure.
For China, gaining a military or diplomatic foothold in these nations could allow it to surveil, influence, or even threaten U.S. allies such as Australia and New Zealand. In February, a Chinese naval task force conducted live-fire drills off Australia’s east coast. The fact that Canberra was informed of this only by a commercial airline pilot highlighted the region’s fragile surveillance capabilities and vulnerability to power projection.
New Zealand, long regarded as a soft-power specialist with deep Pacific connections, was blindsided in early 2024 when the Cook Islands — a realm with which it shares citizenship ties — signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Beijing. This deal, including joint seabed mineral exploration, signaled that not even New Zealand’s traditionally secure partnerships are immune to Chinese encroachment.
A Contest of Influence
Since 2019, China has flipped several nations — including the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and Nauru — to drop diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of Beijing. Its trade with the region has surged, reaching $12.8 billion in 2024. Though only half of its promised development funding has materialized, the symbolism and persistence of China’s outreach are proving potent.
Meanwhile, Australia and New Zealand have responded with their own surge in Pacific engagement. Canberra signed new security treaties with Tuvalu, Nauru, and Papua New Guinea, including defense cooperation and migration pathways. Albanese even backed PNG’s bid to join the Australian rugby league — a culturally savvy move that married politics with passion.
Wellington has deepened aid to Niue, Samoa, and the wider Polynesian triangle, ramped up climate finance, and offered to co-host a UN climate conference with Pacific nations. Foreign Minister Winston Peters recently visited multiple island nations to reinforce New Zealand’s Pacific Reset policy, which emphasizes equality, respect, and mutual development.
Undermined by Washington
Yet even these coordinated regional efforts by Australia and New Zealand are being undermined by the shifting winds from Washington.
Trump’s reimposed tariffs in April 2025 hit Pacific Island nations hard — 30% on Nauru, 32% on Fiji, and 22% on Vanuatu — the same week China was donating police equipment and motorcycles to the region. His “America First” doctrine has gutted the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Pacific programs, and his rejection of climate diplomacy continues to enrage leaders in vulnerable island nations.
“The US abandoned us” is a narrative China doesn’t need to fabricate — it’s a sentiment already gaining traction, says Mihai Sora of the Lowy Institute. And while Canberra and Wellington can plug some of the aid gaps, they cannot replace the global authority and leadership the U.S. once provided.
For New Zealand, this means doubling down on values-driven diplomacy while walking a tightrope. As a Five Eyes partner, it relies on U.S. intelligence and defense cooperation, yet it must now hedge by strengthening independent Pacific alliances and reinforcing climate and development leadership to maintain credibility.
The Five Eyes Dilemma
The Pacific is fast becoming a stress test for the Five Eyes alliance. While Australia and New Zealand remain active and engaged, the U.K. and Canada are distant players, and the U.S., under Trump, appears erratic and disengaged.
If the alliance is to remain relevant in the Pacific, it will require recalibration — not just intelligence sharing, but shared regional burden, consistent climate action, and long-term investment. The next U.S. administration’s posture will determine whether Five Eyes can remain a strategic bulwark or whether it will fracture under diverging global priorities.
Albanese or his conservative challenger, Peter Dutton, may continue trekking the highlands of PNG. New Zealand may continue expanding its climate diplomacy and bilateral aid. But unless Washington recommits to the Pacific in both word and deed, their efforts risk being overwhelmed by China’s relentless presence.
As Sora put it, “The narrative of trust, values, and partnership is dissolving like wet cake — and Beijing is ready with the next slice.”
