Trading, Not Invading: The West’s China Hysteria is Costing the Pacific
The Myth of a Chinese Invasion
In the quiet calm of our islands, far from the buzz of Canberra and Washington, we are constantly reminded — through headlines, foreign diplomats, and television reports — that China is coming. Not to trade, but to invade. Not to build, but to control.
A recent 60 Minutes story shot in Tonga pushed this narrative further. In the report, journalist Amelia Adams walked viewers through scenes of Chinese supermarkets, construction sites, and aid projects — suggesting that China’s presence in the Pacific is part of a creeping strategy to exert control, outpace the West, and potentially extend military reach.
But let’s pause and ask the obvious question: what exactly would China gain from invading Australia, or taking over the Pacific by force?
The answer is: absolutely nothing.
What Would China Actually Gain?
China has become a favourite villain in Western defence circles. Australian naval commanders warn of Chinese warships and live-fire drills. But few ever stop to ask the most basic question: what’s in it for China?
Australia is one of China’s largest trading partners. Billions flow between the two nations. A conflict would collapse that trade and shake China’s own economy. And unlike smaller nations, Australia is not defenceless.
Invading Australia would be geopolitical suicide. China’s leadership is many things — ambitious, calculated, assertive — but not irrational.
Fear as Foreign Policy
So why are we being fed this narrative? Because fear justifies policy. It sells alliances. It inflates military budgets. And it keeps the Pacific tied to an old ideology: the West protects, the East threatens.
But from where we stand in Tonga and across the Pacific, the picture looks very different.
China is Building. The West is Talking.
The 60 Minutes report rightly highlights the scale of Chinese-backed infrastructure in Tonga: government buildings, stadiums, wind farms, fishing fleets, and supermarkets. That’s real. And yes, it’s significant.
One local official interviewed in the program claimed that China now owns roughly 80% of Tonga’s businesses. That statistic is concerning — but let’s be honest: that’s not China’s fault. That’s a failure of our own government’s policy.
China didn’t force its way into every corner of our economy. It simply took up the space we left vacant. The Tongan government has had every opportunity to support local enterprise, regulate foreign investment, and develop a balanced economy — but it hasn’t. If our shops, fisheries, and construction sectors are dominated by foreign operators, it’s because we didn’t build protections or alternatives.
Accountability Starts at Home
Instead of crying foul after the fact, our people should be asking tougher questions of their elected leaders:
What policies are you pushing to protect local business?
What incentives are in place for Tongan-owned start-ups?
How are you balancing foreign investment with national interest?
This is not China’s problem to solve. This is our problem to own.
Sovereignty doesn’t just mean resisting outside influence — it means governing wisely. It means crafting policies that give locals the tools and support to compete. Until we do that, blaming Beijing is just political cover for our own inaction.
The Pacific Deserves Respect, Not Tug-of-War
We are not naive. Pacific nations understand the risks of foreign influence — from any power. But we also know opportunity when we see it.
As Lord Fakafanua rightly said, we don’t control the geopolitical chessboard. But we don’t have to be pawns either.
We can — and must — engage both East and West on our terms. Accept help where it’s offered. Demand respect in return. And reject the tired narrative of heroes and villains.
Let Us Choose Our Own Path
China is not invading Australia. It’s trading with it. Competing, not conquering.
The Pacific should not be dragged into war games for someone else’s benefit. We have our own battles — for development, climate resilience, education, and health.
Let us fight those. And let the superpowers play their theatre elsewhere.
Tu’ifua Vailena contributes regularly to Tonga Independent, using his writing to push back against Western assumptions and highlight the realities faced by Pacific communities. He believes true democracy starts with listening to local voices — not foreign ones.
