Rising Nationalism and Security Tensions Strain Japan–China Relations — and the Ripple Effects Reach the Pacific
By Melino Maka, Tonga Independent News
Tensions between Japan and China are once again testing the stability of East Asia — a region whose decisions increasingly shape the Pacific’s strategic future. Official diplomacy between the two Asian powers remains cautious, but the growing mistrust between them reflects a deeper trend: the rise of nationalism and the return of hard security thinking in both capitals.
Japan’s new conservative leader, Sanae Takaichi, has quickly become a focal point for these shifting dynamics. Known for her hawkish positions, Takaichi has drawn Beijing’s scrutiny over her past visits to Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine, where Japan’s war dead — including convicted war criminals — are honored. China’s state media has described her policies as “distinctly hardline,” underscoring Beijing’s concern that Tokyo is abandoning its postwar restraint.
To many Japanese voters, however, Takaichi’s stance represents pride and sovereignty — a message that resonates amid regional insecurity. Japan’s decision to expand its defense budget and ease restrictions on arms exports reflects a growing sense that it must be ready to defend itself in a more unpredictable environment. For Beijing, this shift feeds fears of a remilitarized Japan closely aligned with the United States.
The tension is not just political. In China, two stabbing attacks on Japanese schoolchildren last year — one of them fatal — have heightened Tokyo’s anxieties about the safety of its citizens abroad. Despite Beijing’s swift punishment of the attackers, Japan’s public perception of China has deteriorated further, worsened by recent detentions of Japanese nationals accused of espionage and the Chinese government’s revival of wartime remembrance campaigns marking “the victory against Japanese aggression.”
Even the economic ties that once anchored the relationship are fraying. China’s export controls on rare earth minerals earlier this year disrupted critical supply chains, while tensions between the Dutch government and Nexperia, a Chinese-owned chipmaker supplying Japanese automakers, forced Honda to suspend production in Mexico. These developments reveal how easily political friction now spills into trade and industry — with potential knock-on effects across global markets.
At the heart of this confrontation is nationalism — not merely as political rhetoric, but as a driving force shaping state behavior. In Japan, nationalism has become entwined with the desire to normalize defense capabilities after decades of constitutional restraint. In China, it sustains domestic unity and legitimizes the Communist Party’s rule amid slowing economic growth and rising global scrutiny. In both societies, leaders find it increasingly difficult to dial down nationalist fervor without appearing weak.
For the Pacific region, these developments are not distant headlines. Rising tension between Asia’s two largest economies reverberates across trade, investment, and climate diplomacy — areas where Pacific nations like Tonga rely on cooperation, not confrontation. As Japan deepens security ties with the United States and Australia, and China expands its influence through aid and infrastructure, the Pacific finds itself navigating a complex web of alliances that could reshape its strategic environment.
The lesson from the Japan–China standoff is clear: security built on rivalry is fragile. National pride may serve political ends at home, but it risks destabilizing a region that depends on peace for prosperity. The Pacific, long a spectator to great power competition, must remain alert — and united — in advocating for dialogue, transparency, and respect for sovereignty.
In the end, both Japan and China have far more to gain from stability than from confrontation. Rebuilding trust will not be easy, but it remains the only sustainable path forward — not only for East Asia, but for the Pacific community that shares its fate.
