Managing Dependence or Building Stability?
Critics of our recent editorial argue that Tonga’s stabilised aid ratio masks a deeper crisis of dependence. Their points deserve attention, but the facts still show that fiscal management has improved in a difficult period. Stability is not success, yet it is the necessary first step toward it.
Recent comments on our editorial “Leadership by Example” raise important questions about Tonga’s fiscal direction and the meaning of progress. We welcome that debate. Constructive scrutiny strengthens both government and journalism.
Critics argue that Tonga’s aid dependence remains alarmingly high and that stabilising it at roughly 49 percent of total spending is no achievement. They are right to remind readers that such reliance leaves our economy exposed to external pressures. No responsible observer would call this level of dependence sustainable. But recognising that the figure has finally stopped rising after four years of steady increases is not complacency; it is an acknowledgement of the first sign of stabilisation in a difficult period.
Context matters. Between 2021 and 2024 Tonga faced overlapping crises: the pandemic, the Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha‘apai eruption, and global price shocks. These forced an unavoidable surge in reconstruction and relief spending, much of it donor-funded. Against that background, holding the aid share steady while domestic revenue rose by 6.8 percent represents real management effort, not spin.
Yes, the total budget has grown by more than 50 percent in four years. Much of that expansion, however, reflects one-off infrastructure projects and inflation, not unchecked government consumption. Fiscal discipline in such conditions means keeping spending transparent, ensuring that funds reach communities, and avoiding unsustainable debt. The evidence suggests progress on those fronts.
The deeper challenge is self-reliance. Tonga’s domestic revenue base remains too narrow, and the private sector too constrained, to support long-term independence from aid. The government’s new Community Development Grants, SME Loan Guarantee Scheme, and renewable-energy investments are early steps toward that goal, but they will need consistent domestic funding and oversight.
To describe current management as “managing dependence” is fair. The real question is whether this phase becomes a bridge to greater fiscal sovereignty or a comfortable plateau of reliance. That will depend on policy continuity, political will, and sustained growth in domestic revenue.
Tonga Independent News stands by its view that stabilising the fiscal trend is a modest but genuine achievement. We also share the critics’ broader concern: stability must now lead to reform. The measure of success will not be whether aid dependence has stopped rising, but whether it starts to fall.
