When Donald Trump took office in 2017, the United States economy was booming—unemployment was low, growth was steady, and inflation was manageable. But instead of building on that strength, he launched a trade war, imposing sweeping tariffs on key trading partners like China, the EU, and Canada. This protectionist policy was not grounded in forward-looking economic strategy but in a familiar American tradition: the politics of nostalgia.

A century earlier, the U.S. made the same mistake.

Back to the 1920s: A Cautionary Tale

The 1920s were an era of rapid innovation—cars, airplanes, radios, movies, and mass production techniques redefined modern life. But behind the roaring economic engine, there was anxiety about the decline of agriculture—the core of America’s identity. Farmers, once the heart of the nation, were left behind.

Following the crash of 1929, U.S. lawmakers introduced the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, raising taxes on over 20,000 imports. Over 1,000 economists publicly warned President Hoover that these tariffs would raise prices, lower living standards, damage exports, and worsen the downturn. Hoover signed the bill anyway, under pressure from Congress.

The global backlash was swift. Canada, one of America’s closest allies, retaliated with its own tariffs. Trade collapsed. Nationalism surged. And while some historians debate the precise role of tariffs in causing the Great Depression, most agree: they made it much worse.

Trump’s Tariffs: A Modern Misstep

Nearly 90 years later, Donald Trump repeated the mistake—this time on a global scale. Tariffs were imposed on goods from China and key allies, sparking a new era of trade tensions. Trump framed it as a fight for American jobs and industry. But here’s the irony: over 80% of Americans work in services, not manufacturing.

Just as America once taxed its entire economy to save the 1% still in agriculture, Trump-era tariffs taxed the nation to protect the 8% working in manufacturing. The logic was rooted not in modern economics, but in a yearning for a past that no longer exists.

Why This Matters to the Pacific

Tonga and our fellow Pacific Islands are deeply connected to the global economy. When powerful nations impose protectionist policies, we feel the consequences—often more than they do. Here’s why the Pacific should be paying close attention:

1. Trade Retaliation Hurts Exporters

Whether it’s niche agricultural products, seafood, or handicrafts, Pacific nations depend on fair trade access. When big players retaliate with tariffs, our exporters are caught in the crossfire and can be priced out of markets.

2. Supply Chains Get Disrupted

Global supply chains react quickly to tariffs. Countries and companies shift sourcing and production to avoid extra costs. For our region, that means we can be dropped from trade routes and supply contracts overnight.

3. Multilateral Trade Rules Get Undermined

Protectionism weakens international institutions like the WTO. For small nations like Tonga, these are the only platforms where we have a fair voice. If the rules collapse, power politics takes over—and we are pushed to the margins.

4. Climate and Aid Commitments Are Jeopardized

The Trump brand of populism also included climate denialism and cuts to foreign aid. For the Pacific Islands, which face existential threats from climate change, this kind of leadership can undo years of global climate diplomacy.