Opinion: Tonga Must Wake Up—Trump’s Second Term is a Storm We Can’t Ignore
A Distant Thunder: The Storm We Aren’t Ready For
On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump was sworn in for his second term as U.S. President. Many in the Pacific may shrug—what does Washington’s chaos have to do with us? But make no mistake: Tonga is in the path of an economic and geopolitical storm, and we are dangerously unprepared.
Trump’s “America First” policies—trade wars, dollar weaponization, and climate denial—are no longer distant headlines. They threaten our very survival. For a nation still recovering from the 2022 Hunga-Tonga eruption, facing rising seas and economic fragility, ignoring these risks would be a mistake we cannot afford. Tonga has a choice: adapt and act now, or be blindsided when the waves hit.
The Dollar Trap: Why Tonga’s Economy is at Risk
Tonga runs on U.S. dollars. Overseas remittances—our economic lifeline—make up 40% of GDP. Meanwhile, 60% of our goods (from rice to medicine) are imported and paid for in dollars. When Trump threatens 100% tariffs on nations moving away from the U.S. dollar (like China and BRICS nations), it doesn’t just impact trade giants—it could send global dollar values into chaos.
What does that mean for us? Remittances could shrink. Prices could surge. Debt could spiral. Yet most Tongans don’t see it coming. The link between a Trump speech in Washington and an empty supermarket shelf in Nuku‘alofa is abstract—until it isn’t. Our government must stop pretending we are safe and start preparing.
Tonga’s Impossible Choice: Stuck Between the U.S. and China
In 2018, Tonga joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), gaining roads and ports—but also entering a geopolitical chess game between superpowers. Trump’s return revives an old ultimatum: “With us or against us.”
But let’s be real: Tonga cannot afford to be bullied into choosing sides. If we lean closer to China, we risk U.S. economic retaliation. If we distance from China, we lose critical infrastructure investment. This isn’t just a foreign policy headache—it’s an everyday crisis in the making. Will remittances be taxed? Will aid be cut? Will inflation skyrocket? The new Tongan government must stop treating global politics as an elite discussion and start telling people the truth: these power struggles will hit us where it hurts—our wallets, our jobs, and our future.
The Climate Betrayal: Trump’s War on the Pacific
Tonga is one of the most climate-vulnerable nations in the world. Rising seas and cyclones aren’t future threats—they are today’s reality. Yet under Trump, the U.S. is expected to abandon climate commitments, defund adaptation projects, and weaken international agreements. When Trump pulled out of the Paris Agreement in his first term, we lost millions in climate funding. Expect that to happen again—at a time when we need it most.
Tonga can’t afford to be polite anymore. Our leaders must stop attending international summits just to shake hands and start demanding action—from the U.S. and the world.
Tonga’s Survival Plan: What We Must Do Now
1. Tell the Truth: Decode the Economic Storm
Tongan leaders must stop talking in vague diplomatic language and start making it real for everyday people.
- What does a “stronger dollar” mean? Less rice and higher fuel prices.
- What does “tariffs” mean? Less money coming from family overseas.
- What does “geopolitical tension” mean? Loans getting harder, tourism slowing down, businesses struggling.
Our people can’t prepare for what they don’t understand. It’s time to explain it clearly—on radio, social media, and in churches.
2. Build Economic Lifeboats
Tonga’s dependence on remittances and imports is a ticking time bomb. We need real economic alternatives.
- Food Security: Invest in vertical farming and solar-powered fisheries.
- Tourism: Tonga earns just $5 million from whale-watching—a fraction of its potential. Establishing a Tonga Tourism Development Authority (TTDA) could centralize tourism management, protect local businesses, and expand eco-tourism.
- Exports: Stop relying on remittances. Let’s grow Tongan-owned export industries.
3. Strengthen Pacific Unity
Tonga cannot fight this alone. We must lead regional efforts through the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) to demand:
- U.S. tariff exemptions on essential imports (medicine, fuel, staple foods).
- Climate reparations for the Pacific—we are facing a crisis we didn’t cause.
The Pacific is stronger together. It’s time we act like it.
4. Prepare for Economic Shocks
Just as Fiji holds cyclone preparedness drills, Tonga must simulate economic crises before they happen:
- What do we do if remittances drop by 30%?
- How do we respond if rice prices double?
- What’s the plan if fuel costs surge?
We’ve survived volcanoes, tsunamis, and cyclones. But economic disasters can be just as devastating—and we must prepare.
Tourism: A Wasted Goldmine
Tonga’s whale-watching industry is an untapped economic powerhouse, but outdated laws and foreign-dominated businesses are holding us back. The TTDA must take control:
- Reserve tourism licenses for Tongan operators.
- Develop eco-tourism programs that directly benefit local communities.
- Modernize tourism laws to maximize revenue for Tonga.
Imagine a fisherman in Neiafu leading eco-tours, sharing profits with his village. This isn’t just tourism—it’s economic independence.
Conclusion: Wake Up Before the Waves Do
Tonga’s history is one of resilience—our ancestors survived storms, eruptions, and invasions. But survival today requires more than courage. It demands strategy, action, and urgency.
Trump’s second term is not a distant issue. It’s an approaching storm. If we fail to prepare, we will pay the price—in empty market shelves, job losses, and economic hardship. We cannot control U.S. politics, but we can control how we respond. By strengthening our economy, uniting the Pacific, and demanding climate justice, we can turn crisis into opportunity.
This is not just about survival. It’s about Tonga’s sovereignty. As the Tongan proverb warns: “ ‘Oua te ne tali hoko, ka tali holo” — Don’t wait for the wave to hit. Prepare for its reach.
The whales are calling. It’s time we answered.
By Melino Maka
