A Tidal Wave of Deportees: Tonga’s Looming Crisis in the Age of Trump
Opinion: Tonga Must Act Now to Mitigate Trump’s Immigration Crackdown
Tonga, a nation of just over 100,000 people, faces an urgent and multifaceted threat that could overwhelm its fragile infrastructure and destabilize its social systems. Donald Trump’s aggressive immigration policies—particularly the mass deportation of undocumented migrants and his push to eliminate birthright citizenship—threaten to unleash a wave of deportees that could drown Tonga and other Pacific nations in crisis. Combined with the region’s ongoing climate challenges and rising drug trade, the stakes could not be higher.
Deportation and the Pacific’s Burden
For decades, deportees from Australia, New Zealand, and the United States have been sent back to Tonga—a country they often barely know. Many arrive with limited support, disconnected from their cultural roots, and unprepared to reintegrate into a society with scarce job opportunities and social services. These deportees frequently find themselves ostracized, falling into unemployment or resorting to illegal activities.
The Trump administration’s plans have raised this threat to new levels. According to Trump’s “border czar,” Tom Homan, the United States is carrying out its largest-ever deportation operation, using military aircraft to transport migrants back to their countries of origin daily. This unprecedented move underscores the administration’s relentless commitment to deportations—without regard for the receiving nations’ capacity to manage the influx. Tonga, with its already stretched resources, risks being overwhelmed.
Birthright Citizenship: A Looming Disaster
The threat of repealing birthright citizenship only compounds the danger. This longstanding guarantee under the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution has protected children born to undocumented migrants, including many Tongan families, ensuring their right to citizenship. Donald Trump’s executive order to restrict this right to children with at least one U.S. citizen or permanent resident parent is an unprecedented challenge to this legal foundation.
Although a federal judge in Seattle, U.S. District Judge John Coughenour, has temporarily blocked this executive order, the uncertainty lingers. Should the order prevail, many children of Tongan migrants could find themselves stateless, thrust into a legal and existential limbo. The resulting increase in deportations would further strain Tonga’s limited resources and exacerbate social tensions.
The Pacific Drug Trade: Deportation’s Dark Side
Deportations have already contributed to a growing drug problem in the Pacific, particularly in Tonga and Fiji. Many deportees, unable to find legitimate means of survival, turn to illegal activities, with drug trafficking becoming a common avenue. The Pacific Ocean is increasingly used as a corridor for drug trade, facilitated by deportees who bring criminal expertise acquired abroad.
In deporting individuals who have spent most of their lives in developed nations, these countries are inadvertently exporting crime to vulnerable Pacific nations. Tonga is left to deal with the fallout: rising crime rates, destabilized communities, and the growing influence of organized drug networks.
Ironically, this short-sighted policy may backfire on the very nations enforcing it, as strengthened drug networks in the Pacific create ripple effects that pose global security threats.
Climate Change: A Double Burden
As Tonga grapples with the social and economic challenges of mass deportations, it also faces the existential threat of climate change. Rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and the destructive impact of cyclones are constant reminders of the vulnerability of Pacific Island nations.
While Tonga has been spared the worst in recent years due to weather systems like El Niño and La Niña, this reprieve is only temporary. The dual burden of handling mass deportations while planning for long-term climate resilience risks overwhelming Tonga’s capacity to prepare for the future.
Dr. Eke’s Opportunity for Leadership
Tonga’s newly appointed Prime Minister, Dr. ‘Aisake Eke, has a unique opportunity to address these intertwined challenges. As the current chair of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), Dr. Eke is well-positioned to escalate discussions on deportation policies and climate resilience to a regional and global level.
Dr. Eke can leverage Tonga’s role in the PIF to emphasize the strategic importance of the Pacific to the United States. Just as the U.S. views Greenland as a critical asset in the Arctic, Dr. Eke can frame the Pacific Islands as vital to geopolitical stability and environmental stewardship. By fostering stronger U.S.-Pacific collaboration, he could advocate for transitional support for deportees, funding for reintegration programs, and increased investment in climate adaptation initiatives.
This diplomatic strategy would not only mitigate the immediate impacts of Trump’s policies but also position Tonga and its Pacific neighbors as indispensable allies in maintaining regional stability.
A Proactive Strategy for Tonga
Tonga must act decisively. Direct dialogue with the Trump administration is essential to ensure that deportations are managed in a way that minimizes harm. This includes securing funding for reintegration programs, vocational training, and community support for deportees.
At the same time, Tonga must strengthen its partnerships with other Pacific nations to present a unified front in addressing deportation and climate challenges. Regional collaboration can amplify Tonga’s voice and influence in international forums, ensuring that the unique vulnerabilities of Pacific nations are not overlooked.
The Stakes Are Global
Tonga’s struggle is not just its own—it is a microcosm of the broader challenges facing Pacific Island nations. The deportation policies of developed nations, coupled with the impacts of climate change, have far-reaching consequences for the region’s stability and security.
Dr. Eke has the opportunity to demonstrate bold leadership by advocating for a future where Pacific nations are not merely recipients of external policies but active participants in shaping them. Bilateral agreements, international collaboration, and strategic diplomacy are essential to turning this crisis into an opportunity for growth and resilience.
A Call for Action
The time to act is now. Tonga cannot afford to wait passively as deportation policies and climate threats converge. Dr. Eke’s leadership, both at home and as chair of the Pacific Islands Forum, will be critical in ensuring that Tonga is prepared to weather this storm.
The consequences of inaction will be devastating—not just for Tonga, but for the Pacific as a whole. Deportations, climate change, and the rise of organized crime are challenges that demand immediate, coordinated, and visionary responses.
Tonga’s future hangs in the balance. Whether the nation rises to meet these challenges or is swept away by them will depend on the decisions made today.
