Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric of “drill, baby, drill” and his potential withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accords signify a retreat from global climate leadership that could undermine the United States’ credibility as a trusted partner in the Pacific.

Trump’s victory in last November U.S. election was accompanied by a clear climate agenda: abandoning the Paris Agreement, possibly exiting the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), halting offshore wind projects immediately, and repealing the Biden administration’s landmark Inflation Reduction Act. This act, which has spurred billions in clean energy tax credits, electric vehicle incentives, and carbon reduction initiatives, is likely to be dismantled under Trump’s proposed policies.

This retreat from climate commitments comes at a critical time when the U.S. is vying to assert its role as a “Pacific nation” to counter China’s growing influence. Since the Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia” in 2012, the U.S. has sought to embed itself within the region’s identity, citing shared historical ties from World War II and its Pacific territories, including Hawaii, Guam, American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands.

Climate: The Pacific’s Biggest Security Threat

The Pacific region has repeatedly cited climate change as its biggest security threat. In 2018, the Pacific Islands Forum endorsed the Boe Declaration, which recognized that “climate change remains the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security, and wellbeing of the peoples of the Pacific.” This declaration, reaffirmed annually, underscores the region’s collective commitment to progress the implementation of the Paris Agreement—a commitment diametrically opposed to Trump’s climate rollback agenda. For Pacific nations, where six of the world’s 20 most disaster-prone countries are located, the existential threat of climate change has driven both regional unity and their approach to partnerships.

The Pacific’s stance on climate is not confined to political leadership but resonates deeply with communities across the region. Rising seas, entire villages being relocated, and islands disappearing highlight the urgency of action. Surveys reveal that Pacific Island populations overwhelmingly prioritize climate leadership as a cornerstone of genuine engagement. This makes Trump’s climate policies appear not just out of step, but outright dismissive of the region’s most pressing concerns.

A Strained Narrative of Partnership

The Biden administration emphasized America’s “profound and enduring ties” with the Pacific, framing the relationship as part of “one Pacific family.” Initiatives like the U.S. Pacific Partnership Strategy were designed to secure the U.S.’s presence in the region and reflect a sentiment of trust and collaboration. Conservative think tanks like the Heritage Foundation have echoed this, arguing in reports such as Project 2025 that U.S. engagement in the Pacific must be elevated to a central pillar of foreign policy to counter “great power competition.”

However, Trump’s return to an anti-climate agenda risks dismantling this narrative. Pacific nations will view his policies as a betrayal of the “family” the U.S. claims to be part of, further undermining efforts to build bilateral and multilateral ties. As Tuvalu’s former Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga warned Australia during its 2018 “Step-Up” initiative, “We cannot be regional partners… unless the government of Australia takes a more progressive response to climate change.” The same sentiment will likely apply to the U.S. under Trump’s leadership.