Numbers Without Accountability: Can Tonga Rely on the 2023 Labour Force Survey?
In a nation like Tonga, where economic resilience and development hinge on effective policymaking, the availability of credible data is paramount. The 2023 Tonga Labour Force Survey (TLFS), the third of its kind since 2003, attempts to provide insights into the labour market. However, a closer examination of its findings and methodology reveals significant gaps that undermine its reliability, raising serious concerns about the resources expended on this report and its capacity to guide meaningful decision-making.
One of the most striking figures from the TLFS 2023 is the reported national unemployment rate of 2.2%. In a country where subsistence farming and informal employment dominate, this figure appears implausibly low. For context, the global average unemployment rate is considerably higher, even in stable economies. Such a statistic raises questions about whether the survey has effectively captured realities such as underemployment, precarious jobs, and discouraged workers who have ceased active job-seeking. Similarly, the Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR), reported at just 45%, suggests that more than half of Tonga’s working-age population is neither employed nor actively seeking work. This figure challenges the notion that the survey accurately accounts for individuals engaged in informal work or subsistence activities, which often fall outside conventional labour definitions.
The credibility of the survey is further undermined by its heavy reliance on self-reported data without cross-referencing administrative records. Household interviews, while useful, are prone to inaccuracies if respondents misclassify their employment status or fail to report informal or sporadic work. The lack of integration with administrative data, such as tax filings or welfare applications, leaves the survey’s findings vulnerable to contradiction. For instance, if revenue department records show higher numbers of unemployed individuals receiving support, this would directly challenge the reported unemployment rate. The absence of such cross-verification limits the utility of the survey as a reliable tool for understanding the labour market.
The survey’s portrayal of urban and rural labour dynamics also raises red flags. It reports higher unemployment in urban areas (3.2%) compared to rural areas (1.9%), despite the latter accounting for the majority of Tonga’s labour force population. This finding seems at odds with well-documented migration patterns, where rural residents move to urban centres in search of better opportunities. Youth unemployment, reported at 6%, also appears understated for a demographic widely known to face significant barriers to formal employment. Anecdotal evidence suggests that many young Tongans struggle to find jobs or are compelled to migrate overseas for better prospects, further casting doubt on the report’s accuracy.
The implications of these discrepancies are far-reaching. A labour force survey is intended to inform national development strategies, yet the TLFS 2023 falls short in providing actionable insights. While the report may be accompanied by polished spreadsheets and graphs, it fails to adequately address systemic issues such as underemployment, skill gaps, or the significant role of the informal sector. These omissions render the survey of limited use to policymakers, who depend on accurate data to allocate resources and design programs that address the nation’s most pressing economic challenges.
For Tonga to achieve its development goals, it must prioritize transparency and rigor in its data collection and analysis. The TLFS 2023, while a step in the right direction, requires substantial improvements to be truly effective. Future surveys must adopt a transparent methodology, subject to independent audits to build confidence in the results. Integrating data from various sources, including revenue departments, employment agencies, and welfare systems, would provide a more comprehensive and accurate picture of employment conditions. Conducting smaller, more frequent surveys could help track trends and validate findings from larger reports, while explicitly including the informal sector in the analysis would ensure a fuller understanding of Tonga’s labour dynamics.
The TLFS 2023 represents a missed opportunity to provide the actionable data necessary for meaningful policy interventions. Without significant reforms to how such surveys are conducted and analysed, Tonga risks perpetuating a cycle of misguided policies based on flawed data. The resources spent on this exercise deserve better returns, and the people of Tonga deserve data that reflects their lived realities. Only through rigorous, transparent, and inclusive data practices can Tonga ensure that its policies genuinely address the economic challenges facing its population and pave the way for a more resilient and equitable future.
The report is available on https://tongastats.gov.to/
