COP29: Will Azerbaijan’s Leadership Address the Pacific’s Climate Crisis or Just More Empty Promises?
As Azerbaijan steps into the climate diplomacy spotlight to host COP29, it’s easy to wonder if this summit will bring real progress for the Pacific or just more empty pledges. For island nations like Tonga, the stakes are critical: we face rising seas, intensifying storms, and, ultimately, an existential threat to our homelands. But with the summit led by a fossil-fuel-rich country, can we expect COP29 to deliver meaningful climate action that respects the urgent needs of vulnerable nations?
Azerbaijan’s environmental credibility is weak. The country’s heavy dependence on oil and gas and its history of repressive politics stand in stark contrast to the Pacific’s fight for climate justice. It’s hard to reconcile our urgent needs with Azerbaijan’s intent to maintain fossil fuel exports. As COP29 president, Azerbaijan should steer negotiations toward an equitable climate finance agreement. But will its reliance on fossil fuels and strong political alliances with energy giants keep real action on climate finance off the table?
The Tongan delegation to COP29, led by Prime Minister Hon. Siaosi Sovaleni, is yet again substantial, showing the importance Tonga places on securing climate finance. Prime Minister Sovaleni has visited Azerbaijan before, and Tonga, like other vulnerable nations, hopes for concrete financial support from this year’s COP. But if past COPs are any indication, our delegation may once again return home with well-intentioned pledges and empty promises. I hope COP29 will be the one to finally prove me wrong.
The climate finance goal has been stuck at $100 billion a year—a figure woefully inadequate for the adaptation, loss, and damage needs of countries on the frontlines. As rising seas threaten to erase entire Pacific communities, our survival depends on these funds reaching trillions of dollars. But here lies the dilemma: how can we expect ambitious financial commitments from a COP president who stands to benefit from the continued global demand for oil and gas?
Azerbaijan’s record on civil rights and freedom of expression further raises questions about COP29’s inclusivity. The Pacific’s climate movement is grassroots-driven, shaped by communities and local leaders who know the realities of climate impacts firsthand. Yet, Azerbaijan’s restrictions on civil society may undermine the diversity of voices necessary for a truly representative summit. Without open, diverse dialogue, can we expect COP29 to address the pressing needs of the most vulnerable?
Azerbaijan’s bid to reframe COP29 as a “peace COP” could divert focus from critical climate issues. While peace and climate are undeniably interconnected, especially in conflict-prone regions, the Pacific cannot afford for COP29 to prioritize political agendas over urgent climate action. If regional stability takes center stage at the expense of ambitious commitments, it’s the frontline communities in the Pacific who will pay the price.
Small Pacific nations like Tonga have done little to contribute to the climate crisis, yet we face its harshest consequences. And while big polluters such as the USA, China, and India continue to negotiate climate deals, their actions—and investments—often fall far short of what’s needed. At COP29, we need the world’s largest emitters to commit not just in words, but with meaningful, funded action to help our nations adapt and build resilience.
The time has come for a COP summit that respects the urgency of the climate crisis for vulnerable nations. Azerbaijan’s presidency could be an opportunity to bridge the gap between fossil fuel-rich states and those demanding a future free of carbon pollution. But without transparency, inclusivity, and a true commitment to climate finance, COP29 risks becoming another page in the history of empty promises.
The Pacific is watching. We hope Azerbaijan will rise to this challenge—but if not, let COP29 serve as a reminder that the voices of vulnerable nations will not be silenced, and that the world must prioritize those on the front lines of this crisis.
